And the winner is…
Here are my predictions for the upcoming Halifax municipal, Canadian federal and US Presidential elections.
Halifax Municipal Elections. And the winner is…
Peter Kelly. This is an easy one to pick. He won last time with 80% of the vote. This time he’ll get 73%. More of the same, stay the course, the devil you know… whatever you want to say. He has not done enough to get himself voted out and Sheila Fougere has not done enough to get herself voted in.
Canadian Federal Elections. And the winner is…
Not Canada. The Conservatives will win with another minority which means another 2 to 3 years of the same bickering and tension in Ottawa. The Conservatives would have had to have won 30 more seats than they did 2 years ago to win a majority. In that election they made gains and won a minority by laying out a very clear plan. This time around they seem to have bet their bid for power on being the only viable alternative but Canadians remain unconvinced. In reality, Jack Layton’s economic plans are irrational as are Canadian’s fears that Stephen Harper is inherently evil. But neither were made clear to the public in a convincing way.
The Green Party will win 1 seat but it will not come from their current MP and will not come from Elizabeth May. The Conservatives will win about 135 seats and voter turnout will be lower than in 2006. Stephane Dion’s career in politics will be done as will Stephen Harper’s best shot at a majority.
US Presidential Election. And the winner is…
Barack Obama. In convincing fashion. This election came down to 2 things, Obama gaining credibility and McCain differentiating himself from the Bush administration while still using their fear tactics. Obama has articulated his ideas more clearly and the “too elite” criticism has not proved to be a determining factor. McCain is holding to his bipartisan record, but not laying out a compelling plan for how to get America back on track.
One piece of good news in this will be that Sarah Palin will be able to go back to her ever important work of protecting America (by keeping an eye on Russia).
Interesting political times. Who do you think will win?
This entry was posted on October 9, 2008 at 10:09 pm and is filed under Canada, Conservatives, Halifax, politics. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments.
Tags: Barack Obama, Canadian federal election 2008, Elizabeth May, Halifax, Halifax municipal election 2008, Jack Layton, John McCain, Peter Kelly, Sarah Palin, Sheila Fougere, Stephane Dion, Stephen Harper, US Presidential election
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October 9, 2008 at 10:25 pm
I agree on the Peter Kelly & minority government (I am so hoping for a majority). I’m still not sure about the US one….time will tell!
October 10, 2008 at 8:52 am
I don’t pretend to know enough about politics and election polls, but I generally agree with your assessment Bryan. I think you are right about Peter Kelly – it is too bad that the federal election is going on at the same time because I haven’t heard anything about what Kelly and Fougere are debating or pitching to Halifax residents.
I have a lot to say how finicky the Canadian public is, especially during elections, but I do hope in the next few days, the reality of the Canadian economy and the critical assessment of party platforms come to light will help Canadians choose the right party to govern. I think Conservatives will win a minority, but closer to a majority than originally thought.
I have no idea about the Americans!
October 11, 2008 at 6:12 am
I think the US election has come down to the economy. Obama looks like the most stable and most able to understand the economy. McCain selling himself as a maverick doesn’t work at a time when no one wants risk. And he removed his greatest attack point at Obama (lack of experience) by bringing in Palin. With the country in this amount of economic trouble, people don’t want to take the risk that Palin will end up as president, as she doesn’t seem smart enough to understand economic issues.
Good luck with the Canadian election.
October 13, 2008 at 1:04 pm
[...] I stick with my predictions. [...]